TO DO LIST – PREPARING FOR 2016

The purpose of this post is to serve as a large self-reminder (for reasons I don’t quite fully understand, putting things in writing increases the likelihood that I will commit to doing them!). It was largely inspired by my friend. If it helps you, great.

Reviewing 2015

  • Review all 2015 trades (open, closed, realized, unrealized, etc)
  • If + gains (realized or unrealized):
    1. Why/causation – “right”, luck, or dumbluck
    2. What was/were the basis/bases of my decision-making?
    3. What could I have done differently? What was out of my control?
  • If – losses (realized or unrealized):
    1. Why/causation – “right”, luck, or dumbluck
    2. What was/were the basis/bases of my decision-making?
    3. What could I have done differently? What was out of my control?
    4. Are there patterns that imply behavioral and/or intellectual/analytical tendencies that can be improved upon?
  • Review errors of omission, i.e. trades/ideas I did not follow through (and the inverse, i.e. bullets dodged)
  • Optional: Do the above (quickly) for all trades since 2011.

Comments: I already know (I think) the answers to the above questions with respect to my biggest 2015 losses/gains.

Considerations for 2016

  • Was I simply lucky in 2015, i.e. the macro/market/etc conditions were precisely favorable for me (and those like me) who behave and think certain ways in certain market environments? I may just be a “fool of randomness”
    1. in 1970s, Steinhardt was the “genius” and Buffett the “fool”… and visa versa in other environments.
    2. Who is looking like the “genius” this year? Who looks like the fool?
    3. Are they actually geniuses and/or fools? Is the supposed genius actually a fool of randomness? Is the supposed fool the proverbial Job?
  • If I were merely a “fool of randomness” in 2015, what can I do differently in 2016 so that I may either (a) not be a fool of randomness (b) make money even if I am the fool (or mitigate risk of becoming the ultimate “Thanksgiving Turkey”, the proverbial ‘patsy on the table’)?
  • Make list and/ aggregate existing lists of specific themes, sectors, securities, etc. that are of highest interest for 2016
    1. Have I positioned already? if so do I have too much or too little allocation? If not, why not?
  • Look left when everyone else is looking right. Visa versa.
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3 Responses to TO DO LIST – PREPARING FOR 2016

  1. Particulate Syndicalist says:

    Are you also reviewing actual positional out of & in the money extremums for actual open to:
    (_) actual close,
    (_) realistic close you can and have confidently executed,&
    (_) ideal close in realistic period of holding time?

    • Of course. The potential profit/loss opportunity set must be measured against actual trading conditions (past if not present/future). The counterfactual analysis has to be done factoring those things in, absolutely, i.e. “realistic close” , realistic execution. THis isn’t paper trading, nor disingenuous “back testing marketing” .. this is solely for self improvement / introspection.

      • Particulate Syndicalist says:

        Can you refer to me any examples and more information on how you do this, and any tools for analyzing and producing the information?

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