Considerations for 2015

Critique of my ‘Considerations for 2014’, as written originally here )

  • Consider sectors and strategies that were out of favor in 2013 – This was OKAY… I was cryptically referring to single name short selling as the out-of-favor strategy. It ended up being an OKAY strategy for 2014.
  • Gold and Miners – YES
  • Endogenous vs Exogeneous – YES (Ebola, Ferguson, HK protests, etc)
  • Go Long Active (vs. Passive) Management – OKAY… as a whole, active did poorly, but there were some notable alpha bright spots
  • Credit/Rates – OKAY
  • Bitcoin ImplicationsEARLY/WRONG
  • Russia? Turkey? – YES
  • War risk creeping – YES

Considerations for 2015

  • Volatility
  • Us equities market: chop-fest / consolidation
  • The bubble in formation is in bonds, not equities. “first thing I do when i see a bubble is I buy” - the palindrome
  • EURUSD parity is in sight within 24 month
  • Single-name short selling: 2013 was disastrous, 2014 was okay, 2015 okay/meh. The few years after a disastrous year tend to be okay (4/N)
  • Watching, but not sure what to make of for 2015: (1) Biotech (2) Shareholder activism (3) Mainland China (6/N)
  • Gold:2013, Oil:2014, ???:2015

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