Considerations for 2015
January 8, 2015 Leave a comment
Critique of my ‘Considerations for 2014’, as written originally here https://thelongshorttrader.com/2013/12/28/946/ )
- Consider sectors and strategies that were out of favor in 2013 – This was OKAY… I was cryptically referring to single name short selling as the out-of-favor strategy. It ended up being an OKAY strategy for 2014.
- Gold and Miners – YES
- Endogenous vs Exogeneous – YES (Ebola, Ferguson, HK protests, etc)
- Go Long Active (vs. Passive) Management – OKAY… as a whole, active did poorly, but there were some notable alpha bright spots
- Credit/Rates – OKAY
- Bitcoin Implications – EARLY/WRONG
- Russia? Turkey? – YES
- War risk creeping – YES
Considerations for 2015
- Volatility
- Us equities market: chop-fest / consolidation
- The bubble in formation is in bonds, not equities. “first thing I do when i see a bubble is I buy” - the palindrome
- EURUSD parity is in sight within 24 month
- Single-name short selling: 2013 was disastrous, 2014 was okay, 2015 okay/meh. The few years after a disastrous year tend to be okay (4/N)
- Watching, but not sure what to make of for 2015: (1) Biotech (2) Shareholder activism (3) Mainland China (6/N)
- Gold:2013, Oil:2014, ???:2015
