On the Radar for 2013
December 30, 2012 Leave a comment
These are the areas that currently interest LST, as we head into 2013:
(1) Frauds, Fads, & Failures – Never gets old. While these tend to be inherently of a single-name (and occasionally thematic) nature, it appears there are certain markets where macroeconomic froth/excess may intersect with the three Fs. Those remain of highest priority. Oh, and “activist” shorts are always high priority.
(2) REITs – This is an area where LST feels (relatively) comfortable, as far as getting up to speed, both on a macro and single-name basis. Will be (particularly) on the lookout for the crescendo of foolish, uneconomic, and short-term behavior. It seems markets all too often forget that “innovation” and “creativity” in finance (e.g. the REIT-ization of “non-traditional” names) are euphemisms for “hidden debt” and “hidden risks” and…all too often end in tears.
(3) Special Situation Longs – Names such as CNSI (as inspired by @mojoris1977 ) will take top priority. IRBT, INVN, and a few others are on the evaluation pipeline. Finally, will be monitoring acquisition and/or activist worthy names.
(4) High Yield Credit – Per one of LST’s recent posts…
(5) Japan, the Nikkei, and USD JPY – The recent performance of the USD JPY and Nikkei have gotten the attention of even lowly students of macro jazz such as LST.
(6) IPOs (particularly of the tech variety) – A few sources “familiar with the matter” expect that tech IPO land will be quite busy in 2013. Time will tell, but if supply increases in equity land, LST will be a very happy camper…