The UnRIGged Transocean: On Watch (as a Long)
September 16, 2014 Leave a comment
I considered going long Transocean (“RIG”) in fall 2011, and did so (briefly) for a trade. It would not have been a bad investment had I stayed on. I am re-visiting RIG as a long through the end of the year, and may initiate a long (and update this post) at any time. Per @mmtul:
RIG the pig, below ’08 lows. Well done! For the past 20 years, P/B range = 0.7 to 4.1. Currently 0.77. What do you think, Carl [Icahn]?
I initiated a long earlier today, and (accidentally via ‘fat finger’) put on a position 10x larger than I had intended. I closed it (fortunately, not at a loss) to re-evaluate. I may start building a long position tomorrow.
A few things that interest me and are worthy of further examination:
- Short interest is high - 12 days to cover, over 20% of float is short. Short interest is nearly 10x higher than 12 months ago.
- Day rate trends, price of oil.
- Russia
- Secular/structural considerations
