Is This How and Why the Nasdaq Will Reach New All Time (Nominal) Highs in Coming Years?
December 15, 2013 Leave a comment
The Nasdaq is “only” ~20-25% off its 2000 all-time highs. The S&P 500 and Dow hit all-time highs this year. The Nasdaq looks “relatively” inexpensive. Some market participants, therefore, have naturally begun to wonder whether the Nasdaq will hit new all-time highs in coming years.
It is my belief that the advent and adoption of electronic trading in the 1990s (coinciding with the revolutionary and transformative effect of the internet on the real economy) played a key role in propelling the NASDAQ to its euphoric heights.
Then I saw the following recently, and thought that its launch and eventual adoption would help the NASDAQ reach new heights:
I might add that robinhood is backed by Google Ventures, Andreesen Horowitz, and other venture investors.
I personally believe that a 1998-like market correction in the near future, coupled with these type of developments will make it increasingly likely that we will see the NASDAQ hit new highs. Robinhood (and Hugh Hendry’s very public faux-capitulation) may serve as immediate term contrary signals (say within the 1-4 quarters), but a medium term leading indicator (1-2 years).
The US economy does not appear to be experiencing the structural improvements, and productivity gains it was experiencing back in the 1990s. As a result, I wonder how long-lasting new highs in NASDAQ will last this time around (that is, if it were to occur).
Perhaps twitter today is what the yahoo message boards was in the 1990s.
Now, if only innovators were to find a way to reduce the mean and median investment banking / advisory fees (IPO, M&A, etc) , say to <1% of capital/deal sizes… that would serve as a free-market (and not centrally planned) solution to redistributing wealth away from Wall Street, and back to Main Street + Tech.
Although I hope to one day become a half-decent macro investor, I will continue to focus on securities selection for the time being (which I personally believe will lead to superior results, measured both in alpha and beta terms, and dollars and cents).
