Gold Miners: Value Trap, Short Term Buy, Generational Buying Opportunity, or None of the Above ?
January 29, 2013 Leave a comment
LST is currently in the mood to play some late night macro jazz, so will jot down below a few (incoherent) thoughts regarding none other than… zee barbaric relic, and those who mine for them:
- A few of LST’s indicators are signaling accumulate/buy (now, if not within the next few trading days), if not monitor VERY CLOSELY on the long side (especially for medium/long duration holding purposes);
- A certain @Paul3222 says gold miners will be “stupid cheap” : “…when management stops destroying shareholder value. Or, when recoverable reserves are worth more than the company.”
- @freegold , Hugh Hendry, and others of the uber-risk conscious mold (rightfully?) believe that one cannot hedge/price in the risk of nationalisation … whether that’s true, or whether the mere headline risk can drive miners to absurdly low prices, it’s something to bear in mind.
- LST wondered whether Paulson’s 2012 trades gone wrong would be 2013 trades gone right (at some point in 2013)…such as gold/miners …
- Impact of gold, gold-related ETFs on gold mining stocks (i.e. “market structure” issues of the secular variety)
- “Gold fundamentals remain strong”
- Eventual reversal of the short miners, long gld/physical trade?
- and some food for thought, per @tejus_sawjiani : http://www.bullioninternational.com/images/uploads/images/powerpoints/Melbourne.pdf