72% of Investors Expect Twitter’s Stock Price to Decline or Stay Flat (You know what this means…)

I’ve been bullish twitter for the last 2 years (as others can attest to; go ahead and verify) and am happy to see that it has gone public under favourable market conditions. I find it interesting that 68% of investors believe twitter’s stock price will close lower than $44.90/share within the next 6 months:

Yes, twitter’s valuation is absurd. Yes, the business is (currently) ponzi-financed. Yet investors’ pessimism is real. And rarely is such lop-sided sentiment perfectly correct. Such sentiment is not indicative of euphoria, but of a healthy (?) dose of skepticism. Granted, sometimes crowded sentiment ends up quite correct (I believe investors were collectively pessimistic regarding GroupOn when it went public…and they were proven correct).

Now, the valuation is most definitely reflective of exuberant public and private capital markets.  But shorting on valuation alone is as wise as buying on valuation alone. For example, if you short a zero revenue business at $x, it can go to $nx (where n >= 2)  before it goes to zero (or not)…

This post is not meant to be a comprehensive analysis of the shares of twitter, but to highlight the lop-sided sentiment against twitter shares.

You should assume that I am the proverbial “patsy” on the table, and that there are smart people who actually know a thing or two about twitter’s business prospects.

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